US tells allies to brace for possible Iran strikes after Tuesday’s election

US officials have privately told Middle Eastern allies to prepare for possible new strikes on Iran, and for Iranian retaliation, after Tuesday’s midterm elections, according to two diplomats who spoke to the Associated Press. Three Gulf Arab officials told MSNOW the strikes could come as early as November 4 and would be brief but intense. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Saturday that President Trump “hasn’t made a decision” and prefers a diplomatic solution. The US has not struck Iran since September 1.

Iran’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, ordered the armed forces to prepare a response “without geographic restrictions.” Tehran says the Strait of Hormuz stays closed until its demands are met, including sanctions relief, the release of frozen funds and a smaller US military presence in the region. Washington disputes how closed it is: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says traffic is back to pre-war levels, minus Iranian oil. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a revised plan, shortened with help from Qatari mediators, could reopen the strait within two days. Iranian negotiators are in Doha, but no direct talks with the US are planned.

Why it matters

This is today’s highest-impact story because the war already reaches far beyond the region. About a fifth of the world’s oil normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and war-driven fuel costs are feeding the cost-of-living protests now spreading across France and Germany. New strikes would likely bring Iranian retaliation against shipping and Gulf states, and another jump in energy prices. Nothing is decided: the strike warnings come from unnamed officials, and talks in Doha continue. The days right after Tuesday’s election are the ones to watch.