Midterms on Tuesday will decide who controls Congress for the next two years

Americans vote on Tuesday, November 3, in midterm elections that will decide control of both chambers of Congress. All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are on the ballot, along with 36 governor races and about 145 statewide ballot measures, from abortion in four states to a one-time wealth tax on California billionaires.

Republicans hold the Senate 53–47, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control, because Vice President JD Vance breaks ties. In the House, Democrats need a net gain of three. Polling averages give Democrats a lead of about eight points nationally, and The Economist’s model puts their chances at about 95% for the House and 55% for the Senate. The Cook Political Report rates seven Senate races as toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. New district maps in ten states since 2025 make the House harder to forecast than usual.

Why it matters

This is today’s highest-impact story because Congress controls federal spending, investigations and confirmations, so the result decides how much of President Trump’s agenda can pass in his final two years. It also bears on the war with Iran: a Democratic House could use its power over funding to limit the war, and US officials have told allies that new strikes could come soon after the vote. Forecasts are not results. Turnout decides, and the Senate may take days to call, since Alaska and Maine count with ranked-choice voting.